摘 要

自从我国改革开放以来，我国的经济快速的发展，打开国门走出去使得我国的出口贸易得到了飞速发展。凭借着我国出口贸易的快速发展，我国的综合国力迅速上升，我国的人均GDP也有了很大的提升，2001年我国加入了世界贸易组织后，我国的出口规模又得到了进一步的扩大，我国的经济发展水平和速度达到了另一个高度，到2010年经过九年的进一步发展，我国超越了日本成为了世界上仅次于美国的第二大经济体。但是在我们经济飞速发展的同时，我们更应该保持清醒的意识，我们要清楚的明白我国的经济发展是建立在牺牲我国环境和人民生活环境的基础上的，我国的经济结构偏向高消耗、高污染、高排放的产业，能源结构以煤炭、石油为主，因此我国的出口贸易碳排放量很高，我国出口贸易的迅速发展伴随着的是我国自然生态环境的严重恶化。由于全球变暖和环境污染问题越来越严重，因此各国国际贸易中的碳排放问题近和环境问题近年来越来越受到国际的关注。中国作为世界上的贸易大国，同时也是世界上碳排放的大国，我国的出口贸易碳排放量也备受国际关注。因此我国必须越来越重视环境问题。如何实现我国出口贸易碳减排，成为我国经济发展过程中的重要问题。

本文主要建立在出口贸易对碳排放的影响效应机制上，运用因素分解的方法主要从出口的规模效应，技术效应，结构效应三个影响效应方面分析，选取了2004-2008和2008-2012年两个时间段的数据，定量测算我国主要工业行业出口贸易通过规模、结构和技术三种效应对我国出口贸易碳排放的影响。研究结果表明，在第一个计算期内，出口贸易对碳排放影响的规模效应为正，结构效应为正，技术效应为负，在第二个计算期内，出口贸易对碳排放影响的规模效应为负，结构效应为负，技术效应为负，根据这个研究结果从而得出结论经济进步初期，我国的出口贸易对碳排放的总的效应是正效应，随着经济进步到某一水平后，出口结构的优化，技术的提高，规模的改变，我国的出口贸易对我国的碳减排有了积极的影响，并据此提出了符合我国国情，促进我国经济与资源、环境相协调发展的对策建议。

关键字：出口贸易、碳排放、影响效应

Effect of China's Export Trade on Carbon Emissions

Abstract

Since China's reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly. Opening the door to the outside world makes China's export trade get rapid development. With the rapid development of China's export trade, our country's comprehensive national strength rising rapidly, China's per capita GDP also had the very big promotion, after our country joined the world trade organization in 2001, the export of our country and obtained the further expansion, the country's level of economic development and speed reached the another height, to 2010, after nine years of further development, China surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy after the United States. But in our country's rapid economic development and at the same time, we should keep a clear consciousness, we must clearly understand the economic development of our country is built on the sacrifice of environment and people's living environment in our country, on the basis of our country's economic structure to high consumption, high pollution, high emission industries, energy structure is given priority to with coal, oil, so China's export trade carbon emissions are high, the rapid development of China's export trade is accompanied by the serious deterioration of the natural ecological environment. As global warming and environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious, the carbon emission in international trade and environmental problems of various countries have attracted more and more international attention in recent years. As a major trading country in the world, China is also a major carbon polluter. Therefore, China must pay more and more attention to environmental problems. How to realize carbon emission reduction in China's export trade has become an important issue in the process of China's economic development.

In this paper, based on the export trade of carbon on the effect mechanism of using the factorization method mainly from the export scale effect, technology effect, structure effect three effect analysis, selected the three time points, 2004, 2008 and 2012 data, quantitatively estimates the main industry export trade through the scale, structure and technology effect of three kinds of export trade of our country the influence of carbon emissions. Research results show that in the first period calculation, export trade scale effect of the impact of carbon emissions is positive, the positive structure effect, technology effect is negative, in the second period calculation, export trade scale effect of the impact of carbon emissions is negative, negative structure effect, technological effect is negative, according to the results of this study thus concluded that the early economic progress, China's export trade of carbon emissions, the overall effect is positive effect with economic progress to a certain level, the optimization of export structure, the improvement of technology, the change of the scale, China's export trade of our country's carbon emissions have a positive influence, and accordingly put forward in accordance with China's national conditions, Countermeasures and Suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of China's economy, resources and environment。

Key Words: export trade, carbon emission, influence effect

目录

1、绪论 5

1.1研究背景和研究意义 5

1.2文献综述 5

1.2.1出口贸易与能源消耗、碳排放之间关系的研究 5

1.2.2  能源消耗和经济增长之间关系的研究 7

1.2.3文献述评 7

1.3研究方法和框架内容 7

1.3.1研究方法 7

1.3.2内容框架 8

1.3.3技术线路图 8

2、中国出口贸易对碳排放影响的理论基础及机制分析 10

2.1出口贸易对碳排放影响理论 10