基于CMS模型的我国劳动密集型农产品出口增长影响因素分析毕业论文

 2021-04-07 12:04

摘 要

一直以来具有劳动力成本优势的劳动密集型农产品出口是形成农产品贸易顺差的主要因素。在加入世界贸易组织以后的很长一段时间内,劳动密集型农产品出口将持续作为推动我国农产品国际贸易发展的生力军。随着我国经济全球化程度不断加深,特别是2001年加入世界贸易组织以来,农产品贸易市场从国内拓展到国际,这在带来许多机遇的同时也带来了许多挑战。入世15年,国际贸易环境变化风起云涌,无论是刚入世时遭遇的市场准入问题,还是从2008年开始逐渐蔓延全球的金融危机,以及2012年以后世界环境的不稳定性以及贸易保护主义的再度抬头,都使我国劳动密集型农产品出口不断面临严苛的挑战。因此,如何正确认识不同国际贸易环境变化中我国劳动密集型农产品出口增长的影响因素以及如何在日益严苛的国际贸易环境中始终保持国际竞争力对我国农产品贸易发展的现期与远期都意味深远。本文详细分析了在入世以来我国劳动密集型农产品的出口现状,并运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS)对中国劳动密集型农产品出口贸易分时期进行增长影响因素分析,归纳对我国劳动密集型农产品出口增长的有利因素和不利因素。研究表明,有利因素在于世界市场需求规模不断扩大;不利因素在于我国劳动密集型农产品本身竞争力较低不适应国际市场需求、全球经济增长的不稳定性和贸易保护主义盛行。因此,只有提高我国劳动密集型农产品自身的竞争力和其适应各种国际贸易环境变化的能力,才能提高我国劳动密集型农产品出口的增长能力。

关键词: 劳动密集型农产品;国际贸易环境;CMS模型

Effects of changes in the international trade environment on China's exports of labor-intensive agricultural products since China entered WTO

——based on CMS model

ABSTRACT

For a long time,labor-intensive products which has a comparative advantage is the main factor of agricultural product export surplus. A long period of time after the WTO accession,China will continue to rely mainly on labor-intensive agricultural exports to promote development of international trade of agricultural products. Swept along with the economic globalization,especially to join the world trade organization in 2001, the agriculture market competition has expand from domestic market to international market,agricultural products bear a brunt of the opportunities and challenges from the international trade environment changes. Since then, international trade environment have been changed a lot, whatever the market access issues or the global financial crisis that began to spread in 2008, and in 2012 when countries started recovering from the financial crisis, with the unstable world environment as well as the resurgence of trade protectionism, China's labor-intensive agricultural products have continue to face harsh challenges. Therefore, how to correctly understand and grasp the changes of the international trade environment that Chinese labor-intensive agricultural products are facing and how to remain competitive in a variety of trade environment for China's agricultural products trade development of current and long-term are both meaningful. Therefore, how to correctly understand and grasp the impact of international trade of environmental change on China's exports of labor-intensive agricultural products and how to remain competitive in a variety of trade environment for China's agricultural products trade development of current and long-term are both meaningful. In this article, according to each development period's trends and characteristics since China entered WTO, analyze the corresponding international trade environment changes and use a constant market share model (CMS) to analyze the different factors. Finally to sum up the international trade environment changes in both sides. Studies have shown that the beneficial effects of the world market for labor-intensive agricultural products continue to expand; adverse effects from low competitiveness of labor-intensive agricultural products, the instability of global economic growth and protectionism. Therefore, only to improve their competitiveness and the ability to face all kind of international trade environment changes can we keep the increase of the exports of the labor-intensive agricultural products.

Keywords: Labor-intensive agricultural products; International trade environment;

CMS model

目 录

1 导论 - 1 -

1.1研究背景、意义 - 1 -

1.2 文献综述 - 1 -

1.2.1劳动密集型农产品出口趋势与特点研究 - 1 -

1.2.2劳动密集型农产品国际竞争力研究 - 2 -

1.2.3恒定市场模型应用研究 - 2 -

1.3 研究目标和内容 - 3 -

1.4 研究方法、数据来源和创新之处 - 3 -

2 我国劳动密集型农产品出口现状及相关国际贸易环境变化情况分析 - 5 -

2.1 相关概念界定 - 5 -

2.1.1劳动密集型农产品 - 5 -

2.1.2国际贸易环境 - 5 -

2.2 劳动密集型农产品出口趋势与特点 - 6 -

2.3劳动密集型农产品面临的国际贸易环境变化 - 8 -

2.3.1探索上升期:2001-2008 - 8 -

2.3.2触底反弹期:2008-2012 - 9 -

2.3.4挑战期:2012-2014 - 10 -

3 中国劳动密集型农产品出口波动影响因素实证分析 - 12 -

3.1恒定市场份额模型(CMS)的概述、适用性和设置 - 12 -

3.2恒定市场份额模型(CMS)计算结果和分析 - 14 -

3.3实证分析结论 - 17 -

3.3.1有利因素 - 17 -

3.3.2不利因素 - 17 -

4 政策建议 - 19 -

4.1提高自身竞争力 - 19 -

4.1.1保持劳动力成本优势,提高劳动从业者数量和质量 - 19 -

4.1.2提高劳动密集型农产品质量,完善各项检验检测体系,加强食品安全 - 19 -

4.2提高应对国际贸易环境变化的能力 - 20 -

4.2.1提高应对新贸易保护主义的能力,完善贸易争端应对机制 - 20 -

4.2.1积极研究国际市场需求,优化产品出口结构 - 20 -

结 论 - 21 -

致 谢 - 22 -

参考文献 - 23 -

1 导论

1.1研究背景、意义

农业作为我国的第一产业,在国民经济中处于举足轻重的地位。中国人多地少,人均耕地不足世界平均水平的三分之一,但是我国拥有世界上数量最多的农业劳动者,农业劳动力资源极为丰富。长期以来,具有劳动力成本优势的劳动密集型农产品出口对农产品出口顺差做出巨大的贡献。2014年,我国劳动密集型农产品出口值达449.02亿美元,占农产品出口总值的62.94%,同比增长4.49%。在入世以后的很长一段时间内,劳动密集型农产品出口将持续作为推动我国农产品国际贸易发展的生力军。

自入世以来,我国劳动密集型农产品出口所面临的国际贸易环境也在不断发生改变。随着经济全球化的逐渐推进,我国越来越提高参与经济全球化的程度,特别是2001年加入世界贸易组织,由此使农业市场的竞争从国内开拓到国际。加入WTO给予我国农业发展一个崭新的舞台,但是我国在享受贸易自由化程度提高带来机遇的同时也面临着诸多的挑战:我国的农业发展不仅面临着自身资源短缺的局限,还有来自国内国外两个市场的双重压力。特别是随着经济全球化程度的不断加深,各国的农业开放度也逐步扩大,世界农业发展呈现出越来越明显的国际化趋势,国际贸易环境也越来越复杂。

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