摘 要

随着我国经济实力的增强，我国在世界的影响力也愈来愈大，进而使我国的对外贸易逐渐显著。据英国丁铎尔气候变化研究中心的“全球碳计划”2012 年度研究成果显示，2011年我国的碳排放已经超出了美国和欧盟的总和。而环境保护主义者认为不恰当的贸易不仅对当地造成污染，还可以产生跨国污染。因此，对我国的碳排放与对外贸易的关系进行分析，对我国贸易生态的持续发展来说具有特别重要的现实意义.本文介绍我国对外贸易和二氧化碳排放现状的基础上，实证分析我国对外贸易与碳排放的相关关系，并从行业角度、结构解析因素角度和其他角度实证研究了碳排放的影响因素。结果表明，近年来我国对外贸易的发展与碳排放增长呈正相关。由此提出我国应加快改变经济发展方式、提高能源利用率、优化产业结构和产品进出口结构、宣传低碳理念并倡导低碳生活的、加强国际交流合作的建议，以处理好对外贸易和环境保护之间的关系，促进我国对外贸易和环境的健康可持续发展。

关键词：对外贸易 碳排放 产品碳排放 低碳

Foreign Trade Relations with China's carbon emissions

ABSTRACT

As China's economic developing, our influence in the world is also growing, and thus make China's foreign trade gradually significant. According to the British Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research "Global Carbon Project" for 2012 research shows that in 2011 China's carbon emissions have exceeded the sum of the United States and the European Union. The environmentalists believe improper trade not only pollute the local, can also produce cross-contamination. Therefore, the relationship between our country and foreign trade carbon emissions were analyzed, of particular practical significance on China Trade Ecology for Sustainable Development. This article describes the current situation of China's foreign trade and carbon dioxide emissions, based on the Empirical Analysis of Foreign Trade and correlation between carbon emissions from the industry point of view, structural analysis and other factors angle perspective of empirical factors influencing the carbon emissions. The results showed that carbon emissions growth and development in recent years, China's foreign trade showed a positive correlation. Whereby the proposed China should accelerate the economic development mode change, improve energy efficiency, optimize the industrial structure and product import and export structure to promote the concept of low-carbon and low-carbon life advocate, proposals to strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, in order to deal with foreign trade and the environment the relationship between protection and promote healthy and sustainable development of China's foreign trade and the environment.

Key words：Foreign trade ， Carbon emission ， Low Carbon

目 录

1 绪论…………………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.1 研究背景与意义……………………………………………………………………………1

1.2 文献综述………………………………………………………………………………2

2 贸易中碳排放的现状…………………………………………………………………………5

2.1我国贸易中的碳排放 ……………………………………………………………………5

2.2 我国贸易概况 ……………………………………………………………………7

2.2.1 全球贸易现状分析……………………………………………………………7

2.2.2 我国贸易现状分析……………………………………………………………7

3 对外贸易与碳排放关系的理论研究……………………………………………………………………11

3.1 出口贸易商品结构差异…………………………………………………………………11

3.2 技术进步……………………………………………………………………………………11

3.3 国际分工和全球价值链模式………………………………………………………………12

4 我国对外贸易对碳排放的影响…………………………………………………………13

4.1 对外贸易与碳排放的相关关系研究…………………………………………………13

4.1.1 数据说明…………………………………………………………………………13

4.1.2 平稳性检验…………………………………………………………………………14

4.1.3 协整检验…………………………………………………………………………14

4.1.4 Granger因果关系检验……………………………………………………………15

4.2 碳排放的影响因素实证研究………………………………………………………15

4.2.1 各行业部门对外贸易对碳排放的影响………………………………………………15

4.2.2 各结构分解因素对碳排放的影响……………………………………………………18

4.2.3 其他因素对碳排放的影响……………………………………………………………20

4.3 对外贸易对碳排放影响小结…………………………………………………………………22

结论 ………………………………………………………………………………………………23

致谢 …………………………………………………………………………………………………25

参考文献 ……………………………………………………………………………………………26

1 绪论