摘 要

外贸依存度是指一个国家或地区的对外贸易总额占该国家或地区GDP的比重，是衡量一国对外开放程度的重要指标。我国自改革开放至今外贸依存度逐步上升，发达的外贸经济在为我国的经济作出贡献的同时也存在着许多弊端。研究外贸依存度的演变情况对我国的经济结构调整和外贸经济转型有着重要的意义。

本文选取1978年到2015年的数据样本进行横向分析纵向比较，根据经济发展阶段分为稳步升高、波动中缓慢上升、快速升高、平稳回落四个阶段研究。从现有的国内外理论基础出发，结合同期我国的内部经济政策和外部经济环境分析每个阶段内的外贸依存度变化的原因。由当前我国贸易现状的态势得出我国外贸依存度存在长期过高、过于集中、变化不稳定等问题。进而总结出影响我国外贸依存度的主要因素，并进一步提出了改善外贸依存度的可行性政策建议。

关键词：外贸依存度；进出口；GDP；

The evolution of China’s foreign trade dependence

ABSTRACT

Dependence on foreign trade refers to a country or region's total foreign trade volume accounted for the proportion of GDP in the country or region, it’s also an important indicator to measure the degree of openness of a country. Since China's reform and opening up to foreign trade dependence has gradually increased, developed foreign trade economy in China's economic contribution to the economy, however there are many drawbacks. The study of the evolution of foreign trade dependence has important significance for China's economic restructuring and the economic transformation of foreign trade.

In this paper, the data samples from 1978 to 2015 were analyzed and compared. According to the stage of economic development, it was divided into four stages: steady rise, slow rise in fluctuation, fast rise and steady fall. From the existing domestic and foreign theoretical basis, combined with the same period of China's internal economic policy and external economic environment analysis of the reasons for the changes in the degree of dependence on foreign trade. From the current situation of China's trade situation, China's foreign trade dependence degree is too high, too concentrated, the change is not stable and so on. And then summed up the impact of China's foreign trade dependence of the main factors, and further put forward the improvement of the degree of dependence on foreign trade, the feasibility of policy recommendations.

Key words：foreign trade interdependence；trade；GDP；

目 录

1 绪论………………………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.1 研究背景………………………………………………………………………………………1

1.2 国内外研究概述……………………………………………………………………………………1

1.3 研究思路…………………………………………………………………………………………3

2 我国外贸依存度的演变历程……………………………………………………………………………4

2.1 稳步升高阶段……………………………………………………………………………………4

2.2 曲折上升阶段……………………………………………………………………………………5

2.3 快速升高阶段……………………………………………………………………………………6

2.4 平稳回落阶段……………………………………………………………………………………7

3当前我国外贸依存度的态势分析………………………………………………………………8

3.1 长期高于合理区间……………………………………………………………………………8

3.2 外贸依存的国家和地区过于集中……………………………………………………………9

3.3 变化趋势不稳定…………………………………………………………………………………10

3.4 加工贸易依存度存在重复计算 …………………………………………………………………11

4 影响外贸依存度的因素分析…………………………………………………………………………12

4.1 产业结构………………………………………………………………………………………12

4.2 国家对外贸易政策…………………………………………………………………………12

4.3 汇率波动…………………………………………………………………………………………12

4.4 国际直接投资…………………………………………………………………………………13

4.5 统计方法的选择…………………………………………………………………………………13

5 优化我国外贸依存度的对策建议………………………………………………………………15

4.1 积极参与世界经济………………………………………………………………………………15

4.2 扩大内需，挖掘国内市场…………………………………………………………………………15

4.3 加强自主创新…………………………………………………………………………………16

4.4 完善国内经济核算制度…………………………………………………………………………16

结论 ………………………………………………………………………………………………………18

致谢 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………19

参考文献………………………………………………………………………………………………20

1 绪论

1.1 研究背景

外贸依存度是指一国对外贸易总额与这个国家国内生产总值的比值，是衡量一国经济对他国经济或世界经济的依赖程度的重要指标之一。改革开放以来，我国对外贸易依存度呈现不断上升的趋势，尤其是加入WTO后。2001年我国加入世界贸易组织，这意味着我国正在迅速的融入世界经济。随着进出口贸易额的不断增长，我国的外贸依存度也不断地攀升，到2006年到达了一个巅峰。2007年受金融危机的影响，我国外贸依存度有所降低，但仍然高于世界平均水平。

1.2 国内外研究概述