粮食价格上涨对中国农村居民收入的影响研究毕业论文

 2021-04-07 12:04

摘 要

这些年来,“三农问题”一直困扰着我国的经济发展, 解决好农业、农村、农民问题,依然是中央全部工作的重中之重。而“三农问题”中,农村居民增收困难是最突出的问题。目前我国绝大部分农村居民的收入来源主要是种粮收入,虽然随着近年来粮价的不断提高,政府不断地出台各种优惠政策来促进粮食生产,提高粮食价格以增加农民收入,从而缩小城乡居民收入分配,但是全国农村居民人均收入仍然连续多年增长缓慢,粮食主产区农民收入的增长幅度低于全国平均水平,严重影响了农村经济发展。因此,为了提高农村居民的收入,改善农村居民的生活水平,从而进一步推动农村经济发展,本文对粮食价格、农业生产成本与农村居民收入之间的关系进行了一系列研究。

首先,先介绍本文的研究背景、研究目的与意义、研究内容等,界定本文所需要用到的农村居民收入、农业生产成本和粮食价格这三个特有概念,以及相关文献综述。

其次,列出相关数据来阐述我国现在在粮食生产、粮食价格、农村居民收入等的现状,初步分析这些数据的趋势以及这些数据所展示的一些问题。

然后,分析粮食价格的变化对农村居民收入的直接影响。以2008年到2017年这十年间小麦的最低收购价格与总产量为例,计算出在最低收购价格下农村居民的应得总收入,再将小麦价格与农村居民总收入进行对比。

接着,分析粮食价格的变化对农村居民收入的间接影响。分析近10年农业生产资料指数与农产品生产价格指数,以此来研究农业生产成本与粮食价格的关系,再分析近12 年农产品生产价格指数与农村居民人均纯收入,以此来研究在有农业生产成本的影响下粮食价格与农村居民纯收入之间的关系。

随后,分析粮食价格的变化对农村居民收入的动态影响。研究在已知粮食价格变化时,农民的决策变化,农村居民收入随之的变化趋势。

最后,建立一元线性回归模型,根据相关数据进行回归分析,并将数据分析得出结论与理论分析得出结论比对。

研究结果表明,单位粮食价格的增长速度超过单位粮食生产成本的增长速度时,农村居民纯收入才会增加,并且农村居民纯收入的增长速度会随着粮食价格的增长速度的增加而增加。

关键字:粮食价格、农业生产成本、农村居民总收入、农村居民纯收入

The impact of grain price on rural residents' income in China

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the "three rural issues" have been plaguing China's economic development.Among the "three rural problems", the difficulty in increasing rural residents' income is the most prominent problem.At present our country most of the rural residents' income source mainly grain income, although with rising food prices in recent years, the government continually introduced all kinds of preferential policies to promote the food production, increasing food prices to increase farmers' income, thus to reduce the urban and rural residents income distribution, but the rural residents' per capita income is still slow growth for successive years, major grain-producing areas in the growth of farmers' income is lower than the national average, seriously affected the rural economic development.Therefore, in order to improve the income of rural residents, improve the living standard of rural residents, and further promote the development of rural economy, this paper conducted a series of studies on the relationship between food prices, agricultural production costs and rural residents' income.

First of all, this paper introduces the research background, research purpose and significance, research content, etc. of this paper, defines the three specific concepts of rural residents' income, agricultural production cost and food price, as well as relevant literature review.Secondly, it lists relevant data to elaborate the current situation of China's grain production, grain price and rural residents' income, and preliminarily analyzes the trend of these data and some problems presented by these data.Then, it analyzes the direct impact of the change of grain price on the income of rural residents.Take the minimum purchase price of wheat and total output in the decade from 2008 to 2017 as an example, calculate the total income of rural residents due to the minimum purchase price, and then compare the wheat price with the total income of rural residents.Next, the indirect effect of the change of grain price on rural residents' income is analyzed.Analysis of nearly 10 years of means of agricultural production index and producer price index of agricultural products, in order to study the agricultural production cost and food prices, the relationship between reanalysis almost 12 years agricultural producer price index and the per capita net income of rural residents, so as to research in the agricultural production cost under the influence of the relationship between the grain price and the net income of rural residents.Then, the dynamic impact of the change of grain price on rural residents' income is analyzed.This paper studies the change trend of rural residents' income as well as the change of farmers' decision-making when the food price is known to change.Finally, the unitary linear regression model is established, and the regression analysis is carried out according to the relevant data, and the conclusion drawn from the data analysis is compared with the conclusion drawn from the theoretical analysis.

The results show that the net income of rural residents will increase when the growth rate of unit grain price exceeds the growth rate of unit grain production cost, and the growth rate of rural residents' net income will increase with the increase of grain price.

Key words: grain price, agricultural production cost, total income of rural residents, net income of rural residents

目录

1 引言 8

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