摘 要

2018年，中国和欧盟建交43周年，欧盟目前是中国最大的贸易经济体，同时也是重要的技术引进方和重要的投资合作伙伴。中欧双边在投资合作中呈现出活跃的发展新气象，虽然伴随有分歧和摩擦，但在不断升温的贸易热潮中，欧盟仍然是中国最大的贸易伙伴之一。二战以后，产业内贸易发展十分迅速，在当代的国际经济活动中，这种贸易形式已经成为影响国际分工、促进新兴产业和主导产业形成的重要因素。目前对中欧产业内贸易的研究不仅具备现实基础，而且对于中欧经贸关系的长期发展以及我国外贸战略的制定都具有重要的指导意义。由于目前关于中欧产业内贸易整体的研究方面在近几年来存在空白，所以本文旨在填补年份上的空白区域，对2007至2015年的最新数据进行定性和定量的分析，以及通过对不同影响因素的分析来找出对中欧产业内贸易发展有着促进作用的主要因素，并根据这些影响因素，针对不同的产业提出政策建议以此来促进中欧产业内贸易。

为此，本文提出了中国-欧盟产业内贸易研究及影响因素分析的课题,力图通过相关的理论,对中国与欧盟产业内贸易发展的状况进行分析,研究中国与欧盟之间产业内贸易发展的水平,以及分析影响中国与欧盟之间产业内贸易的因素。经过这些产业内贸易的研究分析,希望对中国与欧盟之间进一步进行产业内贸易提出一定的启示和建议。

本文选取了目前的最新贸易数据，利用表格、图形对中欧之间的产业内贸易进行了分析。本文采用了分类产业的方法，深入测度和分析了中欧不同产业的产业内贸易水平：首先是对中国与欧盟各产业的进出口贸易额进行分析，得出中欧贸易状况的总体结论；随后，在各个产业中又选取了欧盟主要八个国家的数据，分析了欧盟主要八国与中国不同产业的产业内贸易指数；再次，还针对各个产业中不同类别的产品进行产业内贸易指数分析；最后分析找出了中欧产业内贸易的影响因素，并针对不同的产业提出了不同的政策建议。

经过本文分析后，得出了以下结论：第一，中国与欧盟在货物及服务贸易方面的产业内贸易均呈现平稳态势且均有发展空间；第二，从ＧＬ指数上看，中国与欧盟在产品贸易方面总体表现出由产业间贸易向产业内贸易转变的趋势，但最近几年间产业内贸易有下降的趋势；第三，从不同的产业来看，我国与欧盟的贸易类型有所区别。从初级产品上看，我国与德国、意大利和法国等国家的贸易以产业内贸易为主，与其他国家则以产业间贸易为主（尤其是在2015年）。从制成品上看，我国与欧盟整体以产业内贸易为主，但与某些类别（如第八类）和某些国家（如西班牙）的贸易仍以垂直型贸易为主。从服务业上看，2013年之前我国与欧盟以水平型产业内贸易为主，而在2013年后产业内贸易呈下降趋势；最后，通过研究分析得出，经济发展速度（GDP），产品的差异化以及FDI（国际直接投资）等因素对产业内贸易都会产生一定的影响，但影响方向各不相同。

关键词：中欧，产业内贸易，GL指数，影响因素

Research on Intra-industry Trade in China and EU and Analysis of influencing factors

ABSTRACT

In 2018, the 43rd anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the European Union, the EU is currently China's largest trading economy, as well as an important technology importer and an important investment partner. Although there are differences and frictions, the EU is still one of China's largest trading partners in the growing trade boom. After World War II, intra-industry trade developed very rapidly. In contemporary international economic activities, this form of trade has become an important factor affecting international division of labor and promoting the formation of new industries and leading industries. The current research on intra-industry trade between China and Europe not only It has realistic foundation and has important guiding significance for the long-term development of China-EU economic and trade relations and the formulation of China's foreign trade strategy. Because there is a gap in the research on intra-industry trade between China and Europe in recent years, the purpose of this paper is to fill the gap in the year, and to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis of the latest data from 2007 to 2015. And through the empirical analysis of different factors to find out the main factors that promote the development of intra-industry trade between China and Europe, and according to these factors, put forward policy recommendations for different industries to promote intra-industry trade between China and Europe.

Therefore, this paper puts forward the research of intra-industry trade between China and EU and the analysis of influencing factors, and tries to analyze the development of intra-industry trade between China and EU through relevant theories. This paper studies the development level of intra-industry trade between China and EU and analyzes the factors affecting intra-industry trade between China and EU. Through the research and analysis of these intra-industry trade, the author hopes to give some enlightenment and suggestions to the further development of intra-industry trade between China and EU.

This paper selects the latest trade data and analyzes the intra-industry trade between China and Europe by using tables and graphs. This paper not only adopts the method of classified industries, combines the theory with the empirical research, but also measures and analyzes the intra-industry trade level of different industries in China and Europe. Firstly, it analyzes the volume of import and export trade between China and the European Union. Draw the general conclusion of China-EU trade situation; then, select the data of eight major EU countries in each industry, and analyze the intra-industry trade index of the eight major EU countries and different industries of China. Thirdly, Industries are also targeted at different categories of products in various industries Finally, through empirical analysis, we find out the influencing factors of intra-industry trade in China and Europe, and put forward different policy recommendations for different industries.

After this analysis, we draw the following conclusions: first, both China and EU trade in goods and services trade both present a stable situation and have a development space; second, from the GL index, China and the EU in the overall performance of product trade from inter industry to intra-industry trade in the overall performance of the trend, but the most, but the most. In recent years, intra-industry trade has been declining; third, from different industries, the trade types of China and the European Union are different. From the primary point of view, the trade between China and Germany, Italy and France is mainly intra-industry trade, and the other countries are based on inter industry trade (especially in the other countries. In 2015. From the point of view of finished goods, the whole trade between China and EU is mainly intra-industry trade, but the trade with some types (such as the eighth category) and some countries (such as Spain) is still vertical trade. From the service industry point of view, before 2013, China and the European Union mainly in horizontal intra-industry trade, but after 2013, intra-industry trade showed a downward trend; finally, through research and analysis, Factors such as economic development rate, product differentiation and FDI (International Direct Investment) will have a certain impact on intra-industry trade, but the direction of influence is different.

Key words：China and EU，intra - industry trade，GL index，influencing factor